Black swan or was everything predictable? What's happening? We live in an exciting time.

Simultaneously, targets in Tehran, Isfahan, and Natanz were attacked; 2-3 IRGC generals were eliminated.
Launch of over 100 drones in southern Israel; most intercepted.
In the last 24 hours, crypto capitalization is $230 billion; over $1.2 billion in forced liquidations (altcoins suffered more than BTC).
A drop to $103 k (-8 %) and a quick rebound to 105-106 k; volatility and options skew have sharply increased.

Why does crypto react more strongly than the stock market?
High leverage: futures exchanges instantly "wipe out" over-leveraged alt-longers.
Limited liquidity on weekends/nights: large orders hit the order book faster.
Positioning: before the strike, risk-on prevailed with bets on the AI and meme segment, so the panic closure intensified the decline.

The nerves broke down because there were a lot of densely packed alts in the crypt.

The further trajectory depends primarily on the headlines from Tehran and Jerusalem.

For now, the baseline scenario is a "smoldering" conflict and a turbulent sideways market, but the market remains a powder keg: keep risk under control.