Xapo Bank CEO: The four-year market cycle of Bitcoin has not yet ended

According to the CEO of Xapo Bank, Seamus Rocca, the four-year Bitcoin market cycle, during which the next all-time highs occur through deep corrections, has not been defeated, despite the widespread belief that it is dead.

In a recent interview, he stated that the risk of a prolonged bear market remains very real and that it is not necessary for a "catastrophic" event to trigger it. Simple factors such as a slowdown in news, development, or portfolio rebalancing could lead to the next overall decline in the market. He added:

"We all hope that Bitcoin will become a hedge against inflation, and I believe that one day that will become a reality. However, I am not sure that we have reached that stage yet. I still consider Bitcoin a risky asset. At the very least, the correlation between Bitcoin, S&P, and stocks remains very clear."

He also emphasized that the "spillover effect" could simply be due to a lack of fresh news in the market, leading to the cryptocurrency sector becoming "extremely hot," in a natural and prolonged process.

The chart showing previous cycles of Bitcoin indicates that although the bear market cycle is shortening, they are still a feature of the Bitcoin market | Source: Merlijn The TraderSome Bitcoin investors, industry executives, and cryptocurrency market analysts believe that the four-year market cycle is no longer valid or has evolved to the point where sharp and prolonged cycle adjustments are becoming less likely, due to the presence of institutions and the maturation of cryptocurrency as an asset class.

Institutional buying will not save the market from historical trends

"Many people say, 'Oh, institutions have entered, and therefore, the cyclical nature of Bitcoin is dead.' I do not completely agree with that viewpoint," Seamus Rocca shared.

Seamus Rocca's views have been agreed upon by many other figures in the industry, including educator and Bitcoin analyst Matthew Kratter and the author of the book "The Bushido of Bitcoin," Aleksandar Svetski.

"Human psychology will never change. The cycles are not related to Bitcoin but to human behavior. The same boom and bust will continue to happen," Svetski wrote in a post on social media X on June 15.

In addition, some venture capital firms like Breed warn that over-leveraged Bitcoin treasury companies could be the cause of the next bear market.

However, analysts at the VC firm also believe that the spillover effect could be limited if most of these treasury companies continue to fund the purchase of Bitcoin primarily through equity rather than debt.

Mr. Teacher