#ETH# ### ⚠️ **Pullback Risks and Suppression Signals**

1. **Short-term profit-taking pressure**:
- This morning, the institution **Trend Research transferred 17,289 ETH** (approximately $5.284 million) to Binance to initiate partial profit-taking, which may trigger a follow-up sell-off.
- $3,100-$3,150 is a strong resistance zone, and yesterday the price encountered resistance and fell back. A corresponding volume is needed for an effective breakout.

2. **Technical Overbought and Divergence**:
- The 4-hour chart RSI currently shows **negative divergence**, indicating a weakening upward momentum; if it loses the support of 2,930-2,940 USD, it may retrace to 2,800 USD.
- Some analysts believe that the support at 2,900-2,930 is weak, and a deep pullback may test 2,860 (the area for liquidating short positions).

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### 📊 **Key Price Levels and Trading Strategies**
| **Direction** | **Key Position** | **Trigger Condition** |
|----------------|----------------------|----------------------------------|
| **Bullish Scenario** | Break above $3,050 | Target 3,256 (Fibonacci 0.618) → 3,400-3,500. |
| **Pullback Scenario** | Break below $2,930 | Looking down to $2,800→$2,860 (Bullish defense zone). |
| **Strong Support** | 2,900-2,940 Area | Bulls need to hold on, otherwise the trend will weaken. |
| **Strong Resistance** | 3,100-3,150 Range | Breaking through opens up upward space. |

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### 💎 **Comprehensive Judgment**
- **Intraday Trend**: It is highly likely to **fluctuate between $2,930 and $3,150**. If it stabilizes above $3,050, there is a chance for further increase; conversely, if institutional selling pressure intensifies or it falls below $2,930, it will trigger a pullback.
- **Mid-term Trend**: Q3 ETH performed strongly (+21.9% vs BTC +13.85%). If Bitcoin stabilizes, Ethereum may lead the Altseason, with a target of $3,400-$3,500 in sight.