Blockchain Industry Pioneer Du Jun: The Programmable Era of Bitcoin and the Rise of Chinese Technology

As a pioneer and long-term witness in the blockchain industry, Du Jun's name is almost intertwined with every key wave. From founding Huobi, promoting the early popularization of Bitcoin in China; to creating Jinse Finance, becoming the central node for industry information circulation; and then, as the founding partner of Node Capital, precisely capturing multiple cyclical opportunities. With a keen judgment of technological trends and a long-term perspective on capital operations, he has written countless classic cases in the industry.

Today, he founded Vernal, an incubator focused on the intersection of AI and Crypto innovation, and remains active at the forefront of the industry. At the crossroads of the Bitcoin ecosystem, the changing landscape of stablecoins, and the AI wave, he continues to explore the boundaries of technology and firmly believes in the rise of Chinese people in the global technology landscape.

Recently, Du Jun shared his in-depth analysis of the underlying logic of Blockchain in a deep dialogue. He also publicly explained for the first time why he sees BitVM as a "key leap" for the Bitcoin ecosystem and predicted that 2026 will become the "year of Programmable Bitcoin." When discussing the Hong Kong stablecoin sandbox and the regulatory game with the United States, he calmly demonstrated the composed judgment of a capital strategist.

The Golden Age of Chinese Technology

Du Jun believes that now is the best time for Chinese investors. Chinese people are in a leading position globally in multiple cutting-edge technology fields, especially in the Blockchain industry, where the advantages are particularly prominent.

The exchanges and mining machine manufacturing are almost dominated by the Chinese. Public chain projects like Tron, Ethereum, Solana, and BNBChain have a significant presence of individuals with Chinese backgrounds in their founding teams and executives. Looking at the entire industry, whether it's exchanges, mining machine manufacturers, or wallet applications, you can almost always see the presence of Chinese individuals.

This influence has already extended from Blockchain to a broader range of technology fields: in Silicon Valley, leaders of Chinese descent frequently emerge in the AI and semiconductor industries, such as Su Zifeng and Jensen Huang, who are playing a decisive role in their respective tracks. Compared to the era dominated by Indian engineers ten years ago, the "Chinese dividend" is becoming the new main theme today.

Positioning and Future of Public Blockchains

Du Jun believes that currently there are only four core public chains that have truly established a foothold: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tron, and Solana. Their advantages lie not only in the technology itself but also in their clear market positioning.

• Bitcoin is digital gold
• The fact that Ethereum has become the standard infrastructure for DeFi.
• TRON focuses on stablecoin transfers and settlements, with strong scene applications in the payment field.
• Solana is positioned as a high-performance, low-latency Meme public chain, focusing on extreme user experience and liquidity hotspots.

The reason these public chains have come this far is not because of a "one-size-fits-all" functionality package, but rather a clear strategic choice. In contrast, many other public chains have either unclear positioning or mediocre technology, making it difficult for them to break through across cycles.

Du Jun believes that there is no need for a new public chain in the short term. The Layer 1 solution of Ethereum has significantly improved scalability, reduced costs, and enhanced interoperability among assets. Apart from a very few Layer 2 projects like Base that have emerged, most have long since disappeared. At least within the next five years, and even beyond that, we may not see structural changes.

Bitcoin Ecosystem: From Sentiment to Programmable Future

Du Jun candidly stated that there are some sentiments in the Bitcoin ecosystem. In the early days, they promoted the immutability, traceability, and distributed characteristics of Bitcoin, but rarely mentioned programmability. After Ethereum emerged, it emphasized the programmability and innovation space of blockchain. The Bitcoin community was once divided into two factions: one faction debated scaling, leading to forks like BCH and BSV; the other faction hoped for Bitcoin to be programmable, functional like Ethereum.

For many years, the programmability route technology was immature, until the rise of inscriptions and runes in 2023. However, Du Jun believes that these lack long-term value support. Later, the BitVM protocol proposed achieving Bitcoin programmability through a white paper, which he found very interesting. Bitcoin is a $2 trillion asset, but liquidity is difficult to release. Technologies like BitVM attempt to realize decentralized minting and redemption, joint mining pool verification, and create assets similar to YBTC for application in on-chain scenarios.

Du Jun has invested in multiple routes such as BitVM, RGB++, World Lock, and Lightning. As long as programmability can be achieved, he supports it. Now, the BitVM route is clear, the code quality is high, and the first step towards decentralized minting and redemption is expected to be realized before September this year, with the complete solution possibly seen next year. The development cycle is long, but there is already hope, with the Bitlayer team having 30 to 40 full-time technicians continuously iterating.

The "Religion" of Bitcoin and the Battle for Decentralization

Du Jun believes that Bitcoin is a kind of faith, like a religion, representing digital gold and priceless freedom. You could say it is worth 10,000, 100,000, or even 1 trillion dollars, because it is irreplaceable and embodies a fundamental culture and belief. If Ethereum loses its DeFi projects and the transaction volume drops from 5 million to 500,000, it may be sold off, but Bitcoin will not. In the short term, it is difficult for any coin to replace Bitcoin's position.

Industry Changes: From Belief to Bare Reality

Du Jun reflected on his experience of buying Bitcoin in 2012 and co-founding Huobi with others in 2013. In the early days, it was necessary to first pique users' interest in Bitcoin, discussing its technological reliability and asset allocation. At that time, there weren't many application scenarios, and the price fluctuations weren't significant, relying on technology and the concept of digital gold to attract users.

However, over time, Du Jun found that stablecoins are a breakthrough point, with high efficiency and low cost for cross-border transfers. Last year, the total transfer volume of USDT and USDC was 27 trillion dollars, surpassing Visa and Mastercard's 25 to 26 trillion, demonstrating the promotion of economic efficiency by blockchain.

However, Du Jun believes that this cycle lacks innovation, with only Meme and Tap2earn projects, harvesting users rather than creating value, making the industry boring. Without incremental users and assets, exchanges struggle to rise. If the industry is left with only Meme and Tap2earn, it may be "game over".

The Success and Future of Stablecoins

Du Jun believes that in a free competition market, the US dollar and gold prevail, and no one chooses the Zimbabwe dollar or the Hong Kong dollar. Currency within a sovereign state is enforced by the government, but in global circulation, the US dollar dominates. The future will be a free competition beyond sovereignty, with US dollar stablecoins having the greatest advantage.

USDT wins due to its wide-ranging scenarios and high acceptance. Hong Kong paper currency is issued by three banks, while the US does not care who issues the US dollar stablecoin, as long as it is anchored to dollar assets. Currently, the usage scenarios of the Hong Kong dollar, Singapore dollar, and Cambodian riel are limited, and online expansion still faces challenges. Stablecoins need scenario support; for example, if certain large tech companies issue coins without scenarios, it is also difficult to succeed.

Regarding the prediction that the scale of stablecoins will increase from several hundred billion to 3 trillion dollars, Du Jun believes it is possible, but at this stage, stablecoins are mainly used for payments and arbitrage. The issuance of stablecoins is not for buying other coins, but for arbitrage. In reality, the interest rate on the dollar is 2%, U.S. Treasury bonds are at 4%, and on-chain arbitrage can reach more than ten points. This draws funds away from altcoins, impacting their prices.

Overall, Du Jun outlines the industry's changes and future blueprint with profound sentiment and foresight. His expectations for the Bitcoin ecosystem in 2026, from the "religious" belief in Bitcoin to the technological breakthroughs in Programmability, are exhilarating; from the precise positioning of public chains to the dollar dominance of stablecoins, he analyzes the core logic of the market; from the absence of innovation in the industry to the rise of Chinese technology, he calls for a return to value creation, igniting new hope for the industry.