Macroeconomic and crypto market dynamics

The U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a significant tax reduction bill, which is expected to be signed into effect soon. Although the bill may increase national debt, strong employment data in June provided support for it. Non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This data reduced market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September from 98% to 80%.

However, a team of analysts from a certain investment bank holds a different view. They have lowered their forecast for U.S. Treasury yields and expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates three times consecutively in the fourth quarter of this year. They believe that job growth mainly relies on the government sector, and the labor participation rate remains weak.

In this context, the compliance process of the cryptocurrency industry is accelerating. A certain stablecoin issuer has applied for a National Trust Bank license in the United States, which is seen as an important milestone in the development of the industry. Analysts believe that this will help establish industry standards, promote the integration of stablecoins into anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing systems, and attract more traditional financial institutions to participate.

The Bitcoin market is sensitive to these macro factors. Although Bitcoin briefly rose to around $110,000 after the employment data was released, it failed to break through. Several analysts remain optimistic about the medium to long-term prospects of Bitcoin, with some predicting it could reach $116,000 by the end of this year, and even some analysts have set a target price of $170,000.

However, Bitcoin faces resistance around $112,000 in the short term. A trader pointed out that there are a large number of sell orders near this price level. Technical analysis shows that if this resistance level cannot be broken, the support range below is between $106,000 and $107,500. A well-known industry figure warned that due to a potential short-term liquidity contraction, the Bitcoin price may fall back to the range of $90,000 to $95,000. He expects the market may consolidate or decline slightly before the end of August, and may see an increase after liquidity recovers in early September.

The performance of the altcoin market is uneven, with some tokens showing significant increases. For example, a token related to feng shui on the Solana chain rose by 814% within 24 hours, reaching a market capitalization of 6.4 million USD. Another investment-themed token increased by 140%, reaching a market capitalization of 7.2 million USD.

Market Data Overview

As of July 4, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin price: $109,188, year-to-date increase of 16.61%
• Ethereum price: $2,579.71, year-to-date drop of 22.81%
• Market Sentiment: Greed (Fear and Greed Index 73)
• Market share: Bitcoin 64.5%, Ethereum 9.2%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 193 million USD

Today's Highlights

• The US stock market is closed for one day due to Independence Day.
• A well-known trading platform wallet will launch a new token exclusively.
• A DAO governance proposal has been approved and will be officially implemented today

Among the top 500 tokens by market capitalization, the biggest gainers today include Humanity Protocol (H) with an increase of 28.99%, FUNToken (FUN) with an increase of 23.71%, and Paycoin (PCI) with an increase of 12.48%.

Industry Trends

• A wallet suspected to be associated with a certain encryption currency service provider withdrew a large amount of ETH from the trading platform.
• A certain DeFi development team purchased 17,760 SOL for $2.72 million to expand their holdings and staking strategy.
• A certain asset management company has partnered with a venture capital firm to launch a $250 million investment plan, focusing on physical asset tokenization projects.
• A certain investment firm withdrew $126 million worth of ETH from a centralized exchange within 24 hours.
• A certain DEX core working group announced its dissolution, and 4.5 million governance tokens will be fully refunded to the DAO.
• Data shows that a certain investment institution has sold over $242 million worth of a public chain token and still holds approximately $63.9 million.
• A certain Swiss bank has started to support custody and trading services for a well-known public chain stablecoin.
• A wallet associated with a certain encryption investment institution transferred a large amount of BTC after being dormant for two years, worth approximately $816 million.