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Stablecoin: The market size may reach $3.7 trillion by 2030, becoming a new engine for finance.
Stablecoin: The ChatGPT Moment in Blockchain Finance
Recently, a research institute released a report on the "Digital Dollar," predicting and analyzing the future development of stablecoins. The report points out that 2025 may become an important turning point for the application of Blockchain in the financial and public sectors, a trend mainly driven by regulatory changes.
The research institute predicts that by 2030, the total circulating supply of stablecoins may grow to $1.6 trillion under the baseline scenario, reach $3.7 trillion in an optimistic scenario, and be around $500 billion in a pessimistic scenario. It is expected that the supply of stablecoins will still be predominantly denominated in U.S. dollars, accounting for about 90%, while non-U.S. countries will promote the development of their own central bank digital currencies.
The regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States may drive new net demand for U.S. Treasury securities. By 2030, stablecoin issuers could become one of the largest holders of U.S. Treasury securities.
Although stablecoins pose a certain threat to the traditional banking ecosystem by replacing deposits, they also provide new opportunities for banks and financial institutions to offer services.
The Operating Mechanism of Stablecoins
Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value by being pegged to a reference asset. Key components include the stablecoin issuer, Blockchain ledger, reserves and collateral, and digital wallet providers.
As of April 2025, the total circulating supply of stablecoins has exceeded $230 billion, growing by 54% since April 2024. The top two stablecoins dominate this ecosystem, with a market share of over 90%.
In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly trading volume of stablecoins is between 650 billion and 700 billion US dollars, approximately twice the level from the second half of 2021 to the first half of 2024. Supporting the cryptocurrency ecosystem is the main application scenario for stablecoins.
Factors Driving the Adoption of Stablecoins
The adoption of stablecoins is primarily driven by the following factors:
Practical advantages: fast speed, low cost, available around the clock.
Macroeconomic demand: Hedge against inflation, promote financial inclusion.
Support and integration with existing banks and payment providers.
Improvement of regulatory clarity.
Improvement of user experience.
Improvement in innovation and efficiency.
The Market Prospects of Stablecoins
The research institute predicts that the baseline scenario for the stablecoin market size in 2030 will be $1.6 trillion, the optimistic scenario will be $3.7 trillion, and the pessimistic scenario will be $0.5 trillion.
The main application scenarios for stablecoins in the future may include:
The Relationship Between Stablecoins, Bank Cards, and Central Bank Digital Currencies
The stablecoin market may undergo an evolution similar to that of the bank card market. Some countries may develop their own central bank digital currencies as tools for national strategic autonomy, especially in the areas of wholesale and corporate payments.
The Impact of Stablecoins on the Banking Industry
Stablecoins provide new business opportunities for banks and financial institutions, but they may also impact the deposit base and lending capacity of traditional banks. Banks can participate in the stablecoin ecosystem in various ways, including directly issuing stablecoins, providing related payment solutions, building structured products, or offering liquidity support.
Overall, the development of stablecoins will have a profound impact on the financial system, bringing both opportunities and challenges. With the clarification of the regulatory environment and advances in technology, stablecoins may play an increasingly important role in the global financial system.