Crypto Market Daily: Bitcoin Pressured at $118,000, Follow Non-Farm Employment Data

Market Observation

Recently, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on goods from multiple countries. This move aims to protect American manufacturing and address trade imbalances.

Latest data shows that the core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, reaching a five-month high, indicating persistent inflationary pressures. However, consumer spending growth has slowed, real disposable income remains flat, and the household savings rate is maintained at a cautious level of 4.5%. Although the FOMC kept interest rates unchanged, two board members have unusually voted in favor of a rate cut. The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized that the labor market is the primary consideration for current monetary policy. The market is closely watching the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which could be key in determining the direction of policy. Currently, the probability of a rate cut in September has dropped to around 50%.

Hong Kong will implement the "Stablecoin Ordinance" in August, marking the official entry of stablecoin technology into the regulatory framework. A clear framework and credibility are attracting numerous enterprises to apply for licenses, indicating that the related technology will shift from concept demonstration to large-scale commercial deployment.

Bitcoin briefly fell below $115,000 this morning, then rebounded above $115,500. Analysts point out that if the support at $114,000 is lost, the market could deteriorate. $115,883 is an important liquidation level. If it breaks through the resistance at $118,000, it will pave the way for a challenge to the all-time high. On the fundamental side, institutional buyers have significantly increased over the past six weeks, with a buy-sell ratio reaching 100:1, while spot ETFs have resumed net inflows.

Ethereum briefly fell to around $3600 this morning. Analysts point out that although it faced selling pressure at the $4000 mark, its rebound speed has surpassed that of Bitcoin. However, there remains a cautious sentiment in the market, mainly due to a relative decline in its ecosystem TVL and DEX trading volume share compared to competitors. If enterprises continue to increase their Ethereum reserves, the price may be poised to challenge $5000.

The SEC announced the launch of a "crypto project" at the full committee level, aimed at making the U.S. a global center for encryption assets by revising securities rules. The plan includes multiple measures such as establishing token classification standards, updating custody rules, and simplifying trading licenses.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $115,619 (Year-to-date +23.51%), Daily trading volume $52.244 billion
• Ethereum: $3,682.83 (Year-to-date +11.05%), Daily trading volume $34.676 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 65 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 61.1%, ETH 11.8%
• Total liquidation amount in 24 hours: 630 million USD

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: -$115 million, first net outflow after 5 days of net inflow
• Ethereum ETF: +16.9996 million USD, continuous net inflow for 20 days

Today's Outlook

• Hong Kong has started implementing the Stablecoin Regulation
• Trump claims that the tariff deadline will not be extended, due by August 1.
• Indonesia raises cryptocurrency trading tax rate
• Multiple project token unlocks
• US non-farm payroll data for July released

Hot News

• Strategy Q2 achieved operating revenue of 14 billion USD and net profit of 10 billion USD.
• Mill City Ventures completed a $450 million private placement and launched the SUI treasury strategy.
• Coinbase increased its holdings by 2509 Bitcoins in the second quarter, bringing its total holdings to 11776 coins.
• White House: Imposing a 39% tariff on Swiss goods, raising the tariff on Canada to 35%
• Galaxy Report: Corporate cryptocurrency assets holdings exceed 100 billion USD
• Pudgy Penguins CEO: Has participated in US encryption legislation, PENGU ETF will cover tokens and NFTs.
• Data: The total value of ETH treasury reserves for 64 entities has exceeded 10 billion US dollars.