US credit rating downgraded, Bitcoin approaching historical highs, altcoin market shows resilience against falls

Market Observation

Moody's has downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, with major concerns stemming from the continuing expansion of the fiscal deficit. The federal deficit is expected to rise from 6.4% of GDP in 2024 to nearly 9% by 2035. Rising debt interest, increased welfare spending, and insufficient tax revenue are creating a triple pressure. Political divisions have exacerbated the fiscal predicament, as the House Budget Committee failed to pass a large-scale tax reform plan.

The upward pressure on bond yields conflicts with the dollar index approaching its April lows. Some analysts predict that U.S. inflation will accelerate in May to an annual rate of 3.0-3.5%, which may force the central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in 2025. The president of the Atlanta Fed expects only one rate cut this year, with economic growth slowing to a range of 0.5-1%, presenting a complex situation of low growth coexisting with high inflation.

The price of Bitcoin has surpassed $107,000, just 2.42% away from its all-time high. Several analysts expect Bitcoin to reach a new historical peak, with target prices ranging between $116,000 and $250,000. With the participation of institutional investors, the Bitcoin market is becoming more mature and stable, with its volatility decreasing from being three times that of the S&P 500 index to less than twice.

The price of Ethereum fell below $2400 after breaking through $2700, with over $200 million in long positions liquidated within 24 hours. Technical analysis shows that Ethereum is still in a bullish pattern, and if it breaks through the current resistance level, the target price could reach $3700. Some analysts believe that Ethereum may rise again to the $3000 to $3300 range, and there is even potential to reach $4000 to $5000.

In the secondary market, alts have shown strong resistance to falling and did not decline with Ethereum. The market is keen on trading some emerging tokens. A recent project on a certain platform, ARBUS, has a new listing yield of about 50 times, with a current market value of approximately 11 million USD. Another platform has introduced a coin called LAUNCH, which has a similar concept to a certain project, with a current market value of about 3 million USD.

Time coin has triggered speculative sentiment due to comments made by a certain entrepreneur, being seen by some as a satire of traditional value systems, with a market capitalization of 2.2 million dollars and a 24-hour trading volume of nearly 20 million dollars. In addition, a certain instant messaging platform has also seen coin issuance, with OMNI currently having a market capitalization of 1.3 million dollars.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $103,600 (Year-to-date +12.2%), Daily trading volume $34.68 billion
• Ethereum: $2453 (Year-to-date -22.9%), Daily trading volume $25.93 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 74 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC 1.07 sat/vB, ETH 0.95 Gwei
• Market Share: BTC 63%, ETH 8.8%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.15
• Sector performance: Meme coins (some fell over 10%), SocialFi (-4.2%)
• 24-hour liquidation data: 150,151 people globally were liquidated, for a total amount of $645 million.

ETF Capital Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$260 million
• Ethereum ETF: +22 million USD

Today's Highlights

• A certain AI project will launch a public testnet.
• Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to increase by 2.13% to 121.66T
• Multiple tokens will be unlocked, including PYTH which will unlock approximately $325 million, accounting for 58.62% of the circulating supply.

Market Performance

Top 500 market cap biggest gains today: BUILDon (B) up 41.44%, PRO up 29.41%, KTA up 20.64%, ACT up 20.13%, STMX up 16.98%.

Hot News

• The United States loses its last highest credit rating, which may affect stock market performance.
• US lawmakers will hold a final vote on the stablecoin bill.
• A certain enterprise purchased an additional 1004 BTC, raising its total holdings to 7800 coins.
• A certain trading platform has created over 119,000 tokens, with a graduation rate of only 0.21%.
• A trader has heavily shorted mainstream coins like ETH and BTC, making over 15 million dollars in profit.
• A co-founder of a certain project was arrested in Moscow on suspicion of large-scale fraud.
• Some investors are optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance, expecting the price to reach $250,000.
• Solana's total application revenue in Q1 reached $1.2 billion, marking the best performance in a year.
• 1 Bitcoin price is close to 1 kilogram of gold
• The U.S. SEC plans to review executive compensation disclosure rules.