Bank of Japan meeting minutes: 2025 may gradually raise interest rates to 1% if inflation meets expectations, and the Japanese yen depreciates below 157

Japan's Central Bank, which last week decided to suspend interest rate hikes for the third time in December, released the minutes of its October meeting today, showing that if the economy and inflation trend are in line with expectations, it will gradually raise interest rates, which may rise to 1.0% by the end of fiscal 2025. (Synopsis: Japan's Central Bank does not raise interest rates to maintain 0.25% Intrerest Rate, BTC stands back $100,000) (Background supplement: The yen has been depreciating for six consecutive days!) Analysts warn: Japan's Central Bank may be forced to raise interest rates tomorrow, and the 155 mark is the critical point) The US Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 1 yard on the 19th, but hinted that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow down next year, halving from the previous estimate of 4 yards to only 2 yards, followed by Japan's Central Bank announcing that it will keep the policy Intrerest Rate unchanged at 0.25%, temporarily alleviating the risk of the yen ArbitrageClose Position. However, USD/JPY has now fallen below 157 this morning, and experts predict that if the yen continues to depreciate, it will put pressure on Japan's Central Bank to raise interest rates. And after Trump's election, the overall global economic uncertainty has risen sharply next year, and the uncertainty of Japan's interest rate hike path has also increased. Here's a quick look at the minutes of Japan's Central Bank's October meeting, released today, to see what Central Bank officials think about the outlook for monetary policy. Policy Intrerest Rate May Rise to 1.0% by the End of 2025 Central Bank policymakers agreed to raise interest rates gradually if the economy and price inflation move in line with their expectations, possibly to 1.0% by the end of fiscal 2025, according to minutes from the October meeting. However, Japan's Central Bank minutes also highlighted the cautious approach to monetary policy amid rising domestic and global economic uncertainty. "Central Bank must take time and be cautious when deciding when to raise interest rates, because Japan's policy Intrerest Rate has never exceeded 0.5% in the past three decades." Officials primarily cited domestic wage trends, financial market conditions and economic policy uncertainty following the U.S. presidential election as major monitoring risks. Kazuo Ueda pointed out at a press conference on the 19th that the decision to keep the Intrerest Rate unchanged in December is mainly to wait for more data on the trend of wage growth after the spring labor negotiations (spring fight) in the spring of 2025, and to further clarify the US economic policy after Trump took office. How high does Japan's Central Bank rate hike debate turn from When does it turn At present, the market is divided on the timing of Japan's Central Bank's next rate hike. An economist poll conducted by Reuters earlier this month showed that all respondents expected Japan's Central Bank to raise its policy Intrerest rate by 1 yard to 0.50% by the end of March from the current 0.25%, although they were divided on the timing of the rate hike. But while Central Bank estimates that the Intrerest rate has room to be raised to at least about 1%, some Central Bank sources point out that the recent sluggish domestic consumption suggests that the Intrerest rate may be lower. Kiuchi Takahide, a former commissioner of Japan's Central Bank, believes that once the Intrerest Rate is raised to 0.5%, Japan's Central Bank will slow the pace of interest rate hikes, because further interest rate hikes will bring borrowing costs closer to neutral levels. He predicts: Japan's Central Bank may see Japan's neutral Intrerest rate at just under 1%, expecting to raise the Intrerest rate to 0.5% in January next year and 0.75% around September next year, and after the Intrerest Rate rises to 0.5%, Japan's Central Bank will take a more empirical approach, closely assessing the impact of each rate hike on the economy. Extended reading: Japan's Central Bank Intrerest Rate freezes and rises" officials focus on the future "how high to raise interest rates" yen Arbitrage transaction Close position crisis when will it burst? The U.S.-Japan Arbitrage gap narrows, and the hot money of U.S. stocks may shrink next year In response to the follow-up development of the Japanese dollar Arbitrage transaction, which is regarded as a huge unexploded bomb in the market, an anonymous expert commented to the moving area: Japan's Central Bank may rise 3 yards to 1% in 2025, and the latest forecast of the US Federal Reserve is that it will drop by 2 yards next year, so that the round-trip Arbitrage difference is directly 1.25% less, It is expected that the narrowing of the gap between next year and Arbitrage will shrink U.S. stocks and hot money, which are dominated by yen lending. In addition, the Nikkei reported last week that based on the expectation that Japan's Central Bank will raise interest rates next year and Switzerland's Central Bank will further cut interest rates, there are more and more operations in the global capital market that choose Swiss francs instead of Japanese dollars as the financing currency. The yen dumping caused by active yen Arbitrage trading may also be eased as a result. However, earlier this month, Bloomberg quoted Shusuke Yamada, head of strategy for Bank of America's forex and Intrerest Rate in Tokyo, as saying that if Japan's Central Bank delays raising interest rates until March next year, the yen Arbitrage trade is likely to make a comeback during this period. Related Stories Why BTC Surge? Japan's Central Bank is rumored not to raise interest rates in December! The yen fell sharply to a new 3-week low Japan's Central Bank next week reported that the "tendency not to raise interest rates" yen Arbitrage trading space continues, BTC can continue to rise? Japan's economy is too strong! Experts estimate that the probability of interest rate hikes in December exceeds 50%, "If the United States falls and the sun rises", be careful of the yen ArbitrageClose Position tide [Japan Central Bank meeting minutes: 2025 may gradually raise interest rates to 1% If inflation meets expectations, the yen depreciates above 157" This article was first published in BlockTempo's "Dynamic Trend - The Most Influential Block Chain News Media".