Stellar (XLM) price prediction: exchange balance reaches a historical high of 1.03 billion coins, suppressing the rise, with $0.47 as the key breakthrough point.

Stellar (XLM) rose 10% over the past week, gaining 3% in the last 24 hours, but the upward momentum has not yet erupted. Although the daily chart broke through a bullish pattern earlier this month, the price has not shown strong pumping. On-chain data shows a key contradiction: The exchange XLM balance has reached a historical peak of 1.03 billion coins (approximately $470 million), creating significant selling pressure. However, the demand side money flow index (MFI) has rebounded to 51.32, indicating that buying support remains. The 4-hour chart presents an ascending triangle structure (support $0.44, resistance $0.46/$0.47), but the RSI divergence warns of a short-term momentum fade. If it breaks through $0.47, it may trigger a short order liquidation wave leading to a big pump; failing to hold above $0.43 would damage the bullish structure.

[Moderate Rise Behind: Huge Exchange Sell Pressure] Stellar (XLM) has quietly risen recently, increasing by 10% over the past week and 3% in the last 24 hours, but the rise is far from explosive levels. This contrasts with the technical signals that broke the bullish pattern on the daily chart earlier this month.

Since the technical structure remains bullish, why hasn't the price soared? The answer lies in the supply and demand tug-of-war that is unfolding on-chain and on the charts.

• Supply Side Pressure: Exchange Balances Hit Historic Records The primary clue comes from the exchange balance of XLM. Over the past year, the amount of XLM held by exchanges has risen to a record 1.03 billion (approximately $469.7 million), with the readings of 1.02 billion from July to August being at the historically highest level. Market Impact: A high balance means more tokens are hoarded on the exchange, ready to be sold by traders at any time. This creates a ceiling effect: each price rise may encounter a large number of sell orders acting as resistance. This overhead supply pressure may explain why, even after a technical breakout into a bullish pattern, the price of Stellar has not experienced a strong rebound like other altcoins.

[Demand Side Resistance: Capital Flow Shows Resilience] Under the heavy selling pressure, the buying power has not disappeared. The daily chart Money Flow Index (MFI) — which combines price trends and trading volume to track real money flow — is currently stable above 50 at 51.32, and after avoiding a dip to the July low (around 29), it has recently turned upward. This indicates that, despite sellers being on high alert, there is still a significant inflow of funds into XLM. The buying activity is strong enough to prevent the price from breaking down, but not strong enough to overwhelm the record supply. This balance of strength has put the market in a stalemate.

[4-hour chart analysis: energy decay within the ascending triangle] To determine whether the bullish-bearish stalemate is nearing a break, we turn to the 4-hour chart:

• Technical Structure: The XLM price is currently maintaining within an ascending triangle (bullish continuation pattern), with key support at $0.44 and resistance at $0.46 and $0.47.
• Momentum Concerns: However, the momentum shows signs of fatigue. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on this time frame forms lower highs while the price creates higher highs (bearish divergence), suggesting a short-term exhaustion of upward momentum. Coupled with elevated exchange balances, this slowdown in momentum explains why Stellar remains trapped in a range while maintaining a bullish structure.

[Key offense and defense: $0.47 breakthrough may trigger a short squeeze market]

• Bullish Scenario: If the price effectively breaks through $0.47, it may drive Stellar (XLM) to reach new highs, as this would also signify a complete breakout of the pattern. This price level also coincides with the short squeeze zone. Once it hits $0.47, the forced liquidation of short positions could trigger a chain reaction, causing the price to rise like a waterfall (short squeeze market).
• Downside Risk: Conversely, if the price retraces and falls below $0.43, the bullish structure faces the risk of being damaged—especially if long positions at $0.43 and lower are liquidated, which could exacerbate selling pressure.

Conclusion: Stellar (XLM) is currently caught in a tug-of-war between historical exchange sell pressure of (10.3 billion coins) and moderate capital inflows, resulting in a bullish daily chart formation despite a sluggish rise. The ascending triangle structure in the 4-hour chart($0.44-$0.47) remains a key battleground, and a breakthrough at the $0.47 resistance level is expected to leverage the short order liquidation forces to initiate a big pump, targeting the annual high. However, the RSI divergence and the large circulating chips warn of short-term pullback risks, with $0.43 becoming the last line of defense for bulls; a failure to hold this level may trigger a technical sell-off. Investors need to closely monitor the breakthrough momentum at $0.47 and the changes in on-chain exchange balances, while short-term traders can operate based on the triangle boundaries, chasing longs on breakouts and stopping losses on breakdowns.