2025 Crypto Market Outlook: 4 Possible Scenarios and 11 Predictions

Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETF in early 2024, the crypto market has experienced significant growth. Bitcoin prices have hit new highs, leading to the arrival of the altcoin season, currently hovering around $90,000. It is worth noting that altcoin rallies typically start when Bitcoin reaches its peak; first, Bitcoin attempted to break through $69,000 but failed, and it may try again around $100,000.

The next round of altcoin market trends is expected to occur after Bitcoin stabilizes at $100,000, likely in the first quarter of 2025. However, in the coming months, the script of the second/third quarter of 2024 may also be replayed. Here are four potential market scenarios for 2025:

1. Bitcoin and altcoins rise broadly (30-40% probability)
2. Bitcoin rises, some quality altcoins rise (50-60% probability)
3. Bitcoin rises, altcoins generally fall (20-30% probability)
4. Bitcoin and altcoins decline together (10-20% probability)

For each scenario, investors need to adopt different strategies, such as buying high-quality altcoins on dips or, in some cases, reducing their holdings of altcoins.

It is worth noting that due to the improving macro environment, the breakthrough of a new historical high for Bitcoin may not take as long as in 2024. The new attention and narrative changes brought about by regime changes may drive Bitcoin to remain strong in 2025.

For altcoins, while the overall trend may be similar, the specific performance can vary. The key lies in selection and timing. Although the overall outlook for 2025 is positive, one must still be cautious of significant declines that could occur during periods without catalysts.

Conclusion:

• Bitcoin is expected to continue rising, with the increase possibly exceeding 2024.
• The overall outlook for altcoins is positive, but the volatility may be smaller than in 2024.

Risk factors to be vigilant about include:

• The arrival of the cycle top
• Uncertainty of the Bitcoin Reserve Program
• Supply-side pressure
• Macroeconomic risks

In terms of token selection, areas such as AI, DeFi, L1 public chains, NFTs, and game tokens are worth paying attention to. Some specific recommendations include ALCH, Griffain, AAVE, SUI, etc.

11 Predictions for 2025:

1. A certain large company may implement a DePIN project.
2. A certain trading platform's market share may surpass that of the existing leaders.
3. Metaverse tokens may welcome a resurgence
4. ICOs may become popular again.
5. The market for altcoins on the Ethereum chain may not appear.
6. SUI is expected to reach a double-digit price.
7. Ethereum ETF staking may be approved
8. Famous artists may use NFTs and tokens to manage their fans.
9. The price of Bitcoin may reach $200,000.
10. More founders of public chain projects may resign.
11. Base may lose in competition with other L1s, and Solana may continue to maintain its advantage.