Recently, the interest rate cut hints from Fed Chairman Powell have sparked enthusiasm in the market. However, an analytical article from a well-known economic journalist has cooled this wave of excitement. Published the day after Powell's speech, the article combines internal Fed perspectives with the author's unique insights, providing investors with a more comprehensive view.

The article points out that although Powell hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in September, he simultaneously reminded the public not to have overly high expectations for continued rate cuts. Compared to last year, Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole meeting this year appeared more cautious and vague, reflecting the complexity and flexibility of the Fed's decision-making in the current economic environment.

It is worth noting that there is still no consensus within the Fed regarding the decision to cut interest rates in September. The article cites three key figures who hold opposing views, including Cleveland Fed President Mester and St. Louis Fed President Bullard. The subsequent comments from these insiders will become the focus of market attention, and if their positions remain unchanged, even if there is a rate cut in September, it may only be a one-time precautionary measure.

Another challenge facing the Fed is the upcoming inflation data. The core PCE price index for July is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, reaching a recent high. If there are signs of an economic activity rebound, businesses may pass more costs onto consumers, which increases the likelihood that the August CPI and non-farm payroll data will not support a rate cut in September.

In this complex economic environment, investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor various economic indicators and the statements of Fed officials. Although the market is full of expectations for interest rate cuts, actual decisions may be more complex and cautious. The future direction of Fed policy will continue to affect global financial markets, requiring us to analyze and respond with a more calm and rational attitude.