WaterExpoChaos
vip
Age0.7Year
Peak Tier0
Former research dog in science and technology → now a full-time contract hunter, I have deconstructed 90% of the trading theories on the market using a research mindset, ultimately creating a system that integrates institutional money + order flow... Daily musings on market data highlights, focusing mainly on the European and American markets.
The super macro news week has arrived...
Alright, last week we talked about it.. This week is a week with a lot of macro news.. I estimate the volatility will be quite large..
(It should have been calm last week, but a giant whale selling triggered a wave...)
The major events of this week are probably these:
1 Old Zhong, old Mei, a new round of negotiations...
It is estimated that the results will come out on Wednesday or Thursday.. Based on the recent news that both sides have postponed for another 90 days.. The hope for a framework to be established this time seems low (recently, old Mei'
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The contract order has drawn a cage, is that how the price is trapped?
It's too boring to walk...
Let's continue with yesterday's line of thought..
It is estimated that things will still get busy today around midnight to early morning before the CME opens.
Above 11.90, below 11.76, a double kill for both long and short positions to get these contract orders done...
Let's not place a bet in the middle for now... Continue to observe and let's go to whichever side first...!
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Today's observation.. It's been 2 days without data updates, what is BlackRock's ibit up to...
Today the macro aspect is still tariffs.. Europe will move quickly next.. Old Zhong will also start discussions next week, in fact, both sides have already loosened up a bit over the past two weeks.. Next week is expected to officially finalize the text.. So there is a high probability that there will be some concrete outcomes..
There’s nothing much about the macro other than that. I mentioned this Monday that the macro this week is relatively mild, so the prices are mainly fluctuating up and down.
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Today's observation: a moment of volatility is enjoyable, continuous volatility is always enjoyable..
Today, there are still two news items regarding tariffs.. The Philippines signed a 19% agreement and Japan signed a 15% agreement. It seems that a general increase of around 10% in tariffs is becoming the norm. Tomorrow, there might be more news from Europe..
Looking back at what I ate yesterday, it was quite enjoyable.. First, I made a low long position of 11.65w under the guidance of a big order, catching a large wave.. Yesterday's plan included a high short position near 12W.. Observing at
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Today's observation: The top 10 whales are split evenly between long and short positions, but why are most of them losing money?!
Well, there doesn't seem to be any updates on the macro front this week... No important macro data to be released.. The Federal Reserve's meeting is on next week 7.30, and the upcoming tariff game is on 8.1, also next week.. Back and forth, there's only various voices criticizing Powell.. Old Trump hasn't released any big news either..
So there isn't much to expect on the macro front at the moment.. If there are no unexpected news outside of expectations, this week
ETH-1.46%
BTC-0.98%
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QSHS6vip:
Steadfast HODL💎
Today's observation, avoided the losses, but also missed the gains..
Well, the weekend has passed, and there are currently no significant updates on the macro front or news.. We can only continue to wait and see how the situation develops after the U.S. stock market opens..
Looking back at yesterday, it was right not to be aggressive.. Both aggressive ranges would have been stopped out.. However, I also didn't catch any meat below 116000.
Although I know that there will be some movement after the CME opens, the buying pressure is still too strong.. Only 3 days of liquidity were injected.. Cont
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There are no good updates on the news front this weekend... The market is really stagnant, and today's observations are also lackluster...
Looking back at yesterday.. I actually went short at 11.83w.. but my mindset was not good. After grinding for a while, when it finally dropped below 11.80w, I set a break-even point.. as a result, it later hit 11.84w and just took me out.. actually, it didn't even reach the exit point of 11.86, and in the end, it just hit 1000 points.
So why is it that the market often looks good, but I haven't made much profit... I still need to work on my mindset.
I had a
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A huge profit exit in a day, has the distribution phase started? On-chain analysis, topping at 130,000?
Yesterday, there wasn't any major news in the macroeconomic sphere.. Basically, a few cryptocurrency-related bills were officially signed into law.. Essentially, the positive effects have been realized, and there isn't much more room for speculation..
This weekend seems relatively calm so far, but today we can focus on on-chain analysis..
The day before yesterday, glassnode published an on-chain analysis.. I won't do a full analysis, but let me briefly mention some key points worth noting:
1
BTC-0.98%
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SnailIsAlsoACowChuyvip:
Multiple communities around the world are collaborating for development, and EcoRise is bound to thrive in the entire web3.
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Today's observation... various Favourable Information, the sentiment is too strong..
From yesterday to today, there has also been multiple Favourable Information support.. The several cryptocurrency-related bills mentioned yesterday by the Americans have all been passed.
Additionally, there's a short essay indicating that former President Trump is preparing to sign an executive order allowing retirement accounts like 401ks to invest in alternative assets (including cryptocurrencies). Currently, there are approximately $9 trillion in 401ks. Even if only a small percentage enters the crypto spa
FOMO-8.33%
BTC-0.98%
ETH-1.46%
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Today is relatively free, continuing to return to comprehensive analysis. (macro, micro, news, Candlestick, Liquidity, orders, etc.)
First, let's talk about the macro situation.
2.7%)
So after the data came out, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is rising, approaching the psychological threshold of 4.5%. Subsequently, a member of the Federal Reserve, Logan, indicated that the rising CPI in June will reflect an increase in the PCE prices (inflation) at the end of the month. This implies that the Federal Reserve will further restrain from cutting interest rates.
So the rise in US bond yields
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I'm going out today.. Just a quick update..
An ancient giant whale dumped 20,000 BTC... This time it was really sold off through OTC... So the price has also reacted...
Besides the whales, today's important game is still the CPI. Let's see what kind of range is defined after the CPI. (Yesterday, the ETF only had over 200 million, and the incoming funds have decreased. Here at 120,000, there may still need to be some psychological games played, and the market will consolidate for a period.)
Just now, the 116000 spike tapped into the long liquidation liquidity accumulated since last Friday. But
BTC-0.98%
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The guy who gets messed up every time he opens a position of 400 million has earned back the 40 million he lost.
Wow, this wave is too strong, it's hitting a new high.
This weekend clearly gave me the feeling of that weekend after Old Chuan was elected. (Do you remember, it was after the results gradually came out, starting from 67K, breaking the previous high of 72K and then reaching 76K.. Then the weekend was spent at 76K for 2 days, until Sunday night when it started to explode up to 100K afterwards.)
This time, it started a new high on Friday, after consolidating for 2 days over the weeken
BTC-0.98%
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MarketMarkervip:
just go for it 💪
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I came back and took another look...
It turns out that ETF funds drove up yesterday's surge...
Yesterday, the single-day ETF inflow was 1.1 billion! This is already the second-largest amount of single-day inflow since the establishment of the ETF.. (The largest remains the day when old Trump was elected, with a single-day inflow of 1.3 billion.)
However, I still don't understand why there was a surge in buying on this day...
I asked about the newly released GROK4, which claims to be the AI beacon of wisdom... After searching various major influencers and analysts today, I found there wasn't
GROK-2.27%
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What is this when I got off the plane???
I took a look around, and there were only some short-term bond auctions yesterday.. I haven't had the chance to take a closer look yet.. It shouldn't be like this..
Strangely, within 5 minutes, the pull from 114,000 to 117,000... It's again the time when the Asian market hasn't woken up, the European market has gone to sleep, and the American market is closing, which is the moment of the lowest liquidity...
The time point of this liquidity vacuum has seen many instances of a big needle being inserted... It's always about causing something to happen... I
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EveryDayIsADreamOrder.vip:
Still not lowering interest rates, such a strong pump.
Today's observation.. How did it suddenly reach a new high...
Today I took a stroll, and it seems that there isn't a convincing reason for what drove yesterday's surge to a new high...
Yesterday, the ETF only had an inflow of 200 million, which doesn't really count as being pushed by the ETF..
The only forced explanation is the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes (which indeed started shortly after they were released).
However, I looked at the minutes and also sent a quick read.. In fact, I couldn't find anything particularly uplifting for the market.. The main content is all information that th
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QSHS6vip:
Steadfast HODL💎
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1600W Margin explosion. A Whale on HL has been taken away again..
Alright, the Whale that was taken away today is the "Insider Brother" that went viral a few months ago..
In March, he publicly opened a short position of 500 million on the chain... which once triggered a concentrated slaughter in the crypto circle... (although that wave did not succeed in the slaughter)
Later, after he calmed down for a while, at the end of June, he shorted Bitcoin and Ethereum again using a new address around 105000.
You all know the subsequent plot.. As it kept rising, his position triggered N times a 20% li
BTC-0.98%
ETH-1.46%
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The Federal Reserve (FED) June interest rate meeting minutes, quick read of the content:
1 Economic Fundamentals
It is widely believed that the U.S. economy still has resilience, especially as the GDP growth rate for the second quarter is expected to "remain stable with an upward trend."
In terms of the job market, the unemployment rate remains around 4.2%, and the labor market is still tight. However, the activity of hiring and layoffs by companies has slowed down, and some companies have chosen to pause expansion or large investments due to policy uncertainty.
Consumer spending (especially a
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EveryDayIsADreamOrder.vip:
But why is BTC still rising like crazy, it's frustrating.
Today's observation,
Still holding on... the fluctuation range is getting smaller...
Yesterday I couldn't see anything at 109100 either. This is neither a liquidity position nor a large order position. It's also not an important level for any major candlestick. There's only a small resistance level on the 5-minute chart. Yet this has managed to push the price back three times. I can't understand it, and I won't be going short here...
The low long position didn't really provide any good opportunities.. 12 hours ago, there were indeed guidance for the large spot order at 108200 and the large con
BTC-0.98%
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